Mathare football pitches face climate risks as new film spotlights adaptation gap

A new documentary and climate analysis say extreme rain, heat and water stress are already threatening grassroots football pitches in Nairobi’s Mathare neighborhood, with bigger risks ahead by 2040 and 2100. The findings arrive as Kenya and East Africa prepare for AFCON 2027 and as organizers look for a climate legacy around the tournament.

Why it matters: - Grassroots football pitches in Mathare are part of a community pipeline for health, social connection and sports scholarships. - The analysis shows climate change could make those pitches harder to use and maintain, turning a local sports issue into a broader adaptation challenge. - The findings were presented as Kenya and East Africa look toward AFCON 2027, raising questions about what kind of legacy the tournament will leave.

What happened: - Football for Future and DanChurchAid screened the documentary Pitches in Peril: Mathare 4A on 23 June at an event hosted by the British High Commission Nairobi. - The event brought together climate experts, football leaders, and representatives from the governments of Denmark, Kenya and the UK. - The documentary focuses on floods that hit Nairobi’s Mathare community in 2024, damaging homes, killing people and leaving a major football pitch underwater. - The screening came one year before AFCON 2027.

The details: - Football for Future’s analysis says extreme rainfall is already enough to make grassroots football pitches in Mathare unplayable. - By 2100, rainfall in major storms affecting Mathare could be 68% higher than today. - Heat stress is projected to double by 2040. - By 2100, extreme heat could disrupt football activity on 17 days each year. - Water stress is projected to rise by 345%, creating additional pressure on pitch maintenance. - The documentary follows Meschack Ochieng, a Kenyan Premier League player with Sofapaka FC, along with community leaders in Mathare. - The film was produced by Football for Future and DanChurchAid with community organizations in Mathare. - The analysis was produced by Football for Future with climate risk firm Jupiter Intelligence. - The model uses Jupiter Intelligence’s ClimateScore platform and IPCC climate models to assess local risk under a high-emissions scenario. - The data examines conditions for today, 2050 and 2100. - Football for Future’s report says 14 of 16 FIFA World Cup 2026 stadiums had exceeded safe-play thresholds for at least three major climate hazards in 2025: extreme heat, unplayable rainfall and flooding. - The event was attended by Elijah Mwangi, principal secretary at Kenya’s State Department for Sports; Hussein Mohammed, president of the Football Kenya Federation; and former Kenya captain Victor Wanyama.

Between the lines: - The documentary frames football pitches as frontline climate infrastructure, not just recreational spaces. - The message from organizers is that adaptation spending can protect daily life as well as elite sports. - The World Cup stadium data broadens the warning beyond Nairobi and suggests climate disruptions are becoming a global sports problem. - Elliot Arthur-Worsop said East Africa has a chance to make AFCON 2027 a legacy moment for protecting community pitches. - Jonas Vejsager Nøddekær said adaptation needs more political attention and financial support. - Matt Baugh said the UK wants to work with Kenya on community adaptation.

What's next: - Organizers are using the screening and analysis to push discussion of climate adaptation around AFCON 2027. - Football for Future and DanChurchAid are positioning community pitch protection as part of future climate planning in Kenya. - The report’s World Cup stadium findings are likely to feed wider debate about how major tournaments respond to climate risk.

The bottom line: - Mathare’s football pitches are becoming a visible test case for how climate change can disrupt community life, talent development and sports infrastructure at the same time.